Through collecting a massively large number of tweets and building machine learning models, we investigate the dynamics of the Twitter social network formed by the interactions among millions of Twitter supporters. We then infer the opinion of each user with Artificial Intelligence on the candidates of the 2019 Argentina presidential election. Our predictions are updated daily at 2AM.
The final results of the Model 3 are:
FF = 48.9%, MP = 39.6%, Third Party = 11.4%, Difference = 9.3%The official results of the election with 97.13% of the votes computed are:
FF = 48.10%, MP = 40.37%, Third Party = 11.53%, Difference = 7.73%,# | Hashtag | Count | Camp |
---|---|---|---|
1 | cambiemos | 144195 | M |
2 | macri | 119081 | M |
3 | sinceramente | 92838 | K |
4 | argentina | 87724 | |
5 | habraconsecuencias | 84675 | K |
6 | elecciones2019 | 84138 | |
7 | cristina | 71395 | K |
8 | cfk | 68295 | K |
9 | elecciones | 60086 | |
10 | urgente | 50908 | |
11 | novuelvenmas | 49752 | M |
12 | encuesta | 48483 | |
13 | juntosporelcambio | 45985 | M |
14 | cronicaanunciada | 44841 | K |
15 | politica | 41610 | |
16 | yovotomm | 37397 | M |
17 | axelgobernador | 37222 | K |
18 | navarro2019 | 35916 | K |
19 | animalessueltos | 34816 | |
20 | buenlunes | 34356 | |
21 | fuerzacristina | 33178 | K |
22 | macritevuelvoaelegir | 32530 | M |
23 | buenmartes | 30750 | |
24 | defensoresdelcambio | 28739 | M |
25 | lacornisa | 27464 | |
26 | debodecir | 25126 | M |
27 | buenmiercoles | 24194 | |
28 | sobredosisdetv | 23966 | |
29 | buendomingo | 23825 | |
30 | fernandezfernandez | 23213 | K |
31 | alerta | 22572 | |
32 | operacionlibertad | 22516 | |
33 | vidal | 22445 | M |
34 | cordoba | 22350 | |
35 | ultimahora | 22034 | |
36 | buenjueves | 21761 | |
37 | massa | 20590 | K |
38 | escontodos | 20302 | K |
39 | chaumacri | 19843 | K |
40 | juntossomosimparables | 19772 | M |
41 | hayotrocamino | 19226 | K |
42 | andatemacri | 18712 | K |
43 | humor | 17977 | |
44 | mm2019 | 17649 | M |
45 | frentedetodos | 17401 | K |
46 | buensabado | 17323 | |
47 | lanochedeml | 17129 | |
48 | sinluz | 16771 | |
49 | fernandezfernandez2019 | 16238 | K |
50 | sracristinalecuentoque | 16113 | M |
# | Hashtag | Camp | Count |
---|---|---|---|
1 | cambiemos | M | 144195 |
2 | macri | M | 119081 |
3 | sinceramente | K | 92838 |
4 | habraconsecuencias | K | 84675 |
5 | cristina | K | 71395 |
6 | cfk | K | 68295 |
7 | novuelvenmas | M | 49752 |
8 | juntosporelcambio | M | 45985 |
9 | cronicaanunciada | K | 44841 |
10 | yovotomm | M | 37397 |
11 | axelgobernador | K | 37222 |
12 | navarro2019 | K | 35916 |
13 | fuerzacristina | K | 33178 |
14 | macritevuelvoaelegir | M | 32530 |
15 | defensoresdelcambio | M | 28739 |
16 | debodecir | M | 25126 |
17 | fernandezfernandez | K | 23213 |
18 | vidal | M | 22445 |
19 | massa | K | 20590 |
20 | escontodos | K | 20302 |
21 | chaumacri | K | 19843 |
22 | juntossomosimparables | M | 19772 |
23 | hayotrocamino | K | 19226 |
24 | andatemacri | K | 18712 |
25 | mm2019 | M | 17649 |
26 | frentedetodos | K | 17401 |
27 | fernandezfernandez2019 | K | 16238 |
28 | sracristinalecuentoque | M | 16113 |
29 | vidalespeorquemacri | K | 15817 |
30 | ucr | M | 14647 |
31 | mesaza | M | 14057 |
32 | macripichetto2019 | M | 13902 |
33 | macrisis | K | 13286 |
34 | albertoycristina | K | 13239 |
35 | chautelefe | K | 13209 |
36 | ellalegana | K | 12973 |
37 | cristina2019 | K | 12959 |
38 | albertopresidente | K | 12818 |
39 | mm2019listacompleta | M | 12683 |
40 | haganalgo | K | 12086 |
41 | pichetto | M | 11798 |
42 | todosarosario | K | 11626 |
43 | pj | K | 11135 |
44 | podemoshablar | K | 11133 |
45 | kirchner | K | 11127 |
46 | hayfuturoparavos | K | 10529 |
47 | nvm | M | 10418 |
48 | macrimiente | K | 10131 |
49 | cambiemosnosfundio | K | 10103 |
50 | cristinateesperamos | K | 9582 |
51 | cfkenlaferia | K | 9393 |
52 | macri2019 | M | 9155 |
53 | labandaajuicio | M | 9047 |
54 | elfuturoescontodos | K | 9034 |
55 | pongamosunafotodecfk | K | 9016 |
56 | mananasylvestre10anos | K | 8989 |
57 | sinjusticianohayrepublica | M | 8945 |
58 | sevan | K | 8898 |
59 | paronacional | K | 8837 |
60 | nimacrinicristina | L | 8649 |
61 | 2deagosto | M | 8193 |
62 | novuelvenmasensudelictivavida | M | 8116 |
63 | fuerzapresidente | M | 8097 |
64 | lavagna | L | 8056 |
65 | cristinaenelpj | K | 7904 |
66 | sevamacri | K | 7836 |
67 | futurocontodos | K | 7813 |
68 | mauroenamerica | M | 7760 |
69 | nuevamayoria | K | 7658 |
70 | chaucambiemos | K | 7524 |
71 | macriteodia | K | 7427 |
72 | gutierrezesmacri | M | 7420 |
73 | nestorcumple | K | 7358 |
74 | macriespobreza | K | 7219 |
75 | albertofernandez | K | 7179 |
76 | nuncamasmacri | K | 6975 |
77 | yovotoff | K | 6635 |
78 | boletacompleta | M | 6597 |
79 | concfkviviasmejor | K | 6463 |
80 | hayalternativa | K | 6385 |
81 | hartosdelosk | M | 6382 |
82 | juiciopoliticoamacri | K | 6364 |
83 | macrigato | K | 6200 |
84 | consensofederal | L | 6101 |
85 | macrichau | K | 5848 |
86 | sisepuede | M | 5723 |
87 | macriestoyconvos | M | 5722 |
88 | vidallapeor | K | 5666 |
89 | macrilandia | K | 5352 |
90 | lasmentirasdevidal | K | 5312 |
91 | vidalespeor | K | 5281 |
92 | evita100anos | K | 5227 |
93 | argentinaexplota | K | 5130 |
94 | blindadaporpichetto | M | 5093 |
95 | fuerzaflorencia | K | 5032 |
96 | yovotoalbertopresidente | K | 4988 |
97 | macrinuncamas | K | 4985 |
98 | ellavuelve | K | 4907 |
99 | confirmenaramospadilla | K | 4877 |
100 | yovotoavidal | M | 4877 |
101 | majulmercenario | K | 4787 |
102 | elijoalosfernandez | K | 4703 |
103 | nestorpudo | K | 4628 |
104 | derrumbepro | K | 4596 |
105 | dalessiogate | K | 4454 |
106 | yovotoalgato | M | 4417 |
107 | macrivendepatria | K | 4345 |
108 | macripichetto2019listacompleta | M | 4319 |
109 | lasobrasnomienten | M | 4301 |
110 | ruidazo | K | 4297 |
111 | kicillofmagario | K | 4253 |
112 | juntosporelcambioboletacompleta | M | 4236 |
113 | kicillof | K | 4228 |
114 | ramospadillasomostodos | K | 4192 |
115 | yovotoalfrentedetodos | K | 4172 |
116 | macriarruga | K | 3997 |
117 | peponilaconmacri | M | 3945 |
118 | cristinaenmardelplata | K | 3928 |
119 | manotazopro | K | 3923 |
120 | chautimba | K | 3923 |
121 | dejencompetiraespert | L | 3850 |
122 | cristinaenmendoza | K | 3846 |
123 | vidal2019 | M | 3840 |
124 | conalbertohayfuturo | K | 3792 |
125 | macriescaos | K | 3708 |
126 | elplandecristina | M | 3686 |
127 | ruidazonacional | K | 3648 |
128 | peronvive | K | 3620 |
129 | macrichetto | M | 3596 |
130 | macrijefedelabanda | K | 3581 |
131 | cristinasomostodos | K | 3573 |
132 | macriaprietaalaprensa | K | 3558 |
133 | desafueroastornelliya | K | 3501 |
134 | porunaargentinamejor | M | 3485 |
135 | bonadiotrucho | K | 3364 |
136 | sefugarontodo | M | 3271 |
137 | lapropuestadetodos | K | 3249 |
138 | cambiandojuntos | M | 3231 |
139 | 1mruidazonacional | K | 3221 |
140 | sevanenprimeravuelta | K | 3213 |
141 | yosigoconfiando | M | 3181 |
142 | novuelvennuncamas | M | 3180 |
143 | macriconmajul | M | 3169 |
144 | chautn | K | 3055 |
145 | todosconalberto | K | 3050 |
146 | macriesviolencia | K | 3021 |
147 | cfkenlarural | K | 2964 |
148 | cordobacambia | M | 2937 |
149 | hambrepro | K | 2929 |
150 | elversodelascloacas | K | 2904 |
151 | macrienlarural | M | 2857 |
152 | camaradaaxel | M | 2854 |
153 | cristinaenmalvinas | K | 2849 |
154 | cambiemosacambiemos | K | 2824 |
155 | nonosdejemospsicopatear | M | 2720 |
156 | cacerolazo | M | 2682 |
157 | lilitaconmajul | M | 2579 |
158 | colapsopro | K | 2576 |
159 | abismopro | K | 2523 |
160 | loquequeremostodos | K | 2496 |
161 | chautelefenoticias | K | 2486 |
162 | lamafiademacri | K | 2434 |
163 | stornelliaindagatoria | K | 2433 |
164 | kirchnerista | K | 2402 |
165 | nestorvive | K | 2402 |
166 | cristinaensantiago | K | 2368 |
167 | arrugocristina | K | 2358 |
168 | conramospadillano | K | 2343 |
169 | serobaronlasjubilaciones | K | 2261 |
170 | proeshambre | K | 2214 |
171 | ramospadillanosetoca | K | 2146 |
172 | patriaproductiva | K | 2050 |
173 | conffjubilacionesdignas | K | 1995 |
174 | mananacordobacambia | M | 1958 |
175 | 21mporlaverdad | K | 1837 |
176 | riesgomacri | K | 1768 |
177 | caecarrio | K | 1664 |
178 | mafiajudicialpro | K | 1657 |
179 | votoaxelgobernador | K | 1627 |
180 | elriesgoescristina | M | 1547 |
181 | fuerzamauricio | M | 1531 |
182 | nosunimos | K | 1504 |
183 | rompierontodo | K | 1389 |
184 | vienenairesbuenos | K | 1330 |
185 | elfuturoesmacri | M | 1284 |
186 | duhalde | L | 1278 |
187 | derrotemosalfmi | K | 1132 |
188 | recuperarlorobado | M | 1109 |
189 | todomal | K | 1087 |
190 | mariugeniadelmal | K | 950 |
191 | macrilohizo | K | 941 |
192 | yotevotoalberto | K | 910 |
193 | massa2019 | K | 529 |
194 | ponelelavagnaalprograma | L | 215 |
195 | noaflojamos | M | 207 |
196 | aumentatodo | K | 48 |
197 | 24a | M | 8 |
198 | macrichauchauchau | K | 8 |
199 | macrieselfuturo | M | 6 |
200 | lodamosvuelta | M | 6 |
201 | ladamosvuelta | M | 6 |
202 | apagonamajul | M | 6 |
203 | macrihacetecargo | K | 5 |
204 | siguenmintiendo | K | 4 |
205 | macrivsmacri | K | 2 |
August | September | October | |
---|---|---|---|
Ultra loyal FF | 505875 | 578168 | 612402 |
Ultra loyal MP | 311410 | 365065 | 384819 |
Undecided - FF | 727 | 1216 | 1319 |
Undecided - MP | 1329 | 1866 | 2033 |
Undecided - Undecided | 108955 | 140180 | 148655 |
loyal FF - FF | 202050 | 260255 | 278230 |
loyal FF - MP | 5356 | 7151 | 8269 |
loyal FF - Undecided | 9314 | 13538 | 15437 |
loyal MP - FF | 1846 | 3565 | 3704 |
loyal MP - MP | 132805 | 180513 | 196932 |
loyal MP - Undecided | 5140 | 8553 | 8637 |
Unclassified | 215520 | 251796 | 263739 |
1500327 | 1811866 | 1924176 | |
homophily (undecided) | |||
FF (from undecided) | 53704 | 66360 | 66736 |
MP (from undecided) | 19282 | 29129 | 32465 |
Undecided (from undecided) | 38025 | 47773 | 52806 |
111011 | 143262 | 152007 | |
homophily (unclassfied) | |||
FF (from unclassified) | 72218 | 86774 | 83264 |
MP (from unclassified) | 21893 | 29455 | 33653 |
Unclassified (from unclassified) | 121409 | 135567 | 146822 |
215520 | 251796 | 263739 |
MODEL 1 | August | September | October | Note |
---|---|---|---|---|
FF | 722595 | 859112 | 914338 | Ultra loyal FF + loyal FF-FF + loyal FF-MP + loyal FF-Undecided |
MP | 451201 | 557696 | 594092 | Ultra loyal MP + loyal MP-MP + loyal MP-FF + loyal MP-Undecided |
third party | 326531 | 395058 | 415746 | Undecided-MP + Undecided-FF + Undecided-Undecided + Unclassified |
FF (%) | 48.2% | 47.4% | 47.5% | |
MP (%) | 30.1% | 30.8% | 30.9% | |
third party (%) | 21.8% | 21.8% | 21.6% | |
MODEL 2 | August | September | October | Note |
---|---|---|---|---|
FF | 776299 | 925472 | 981074 | Ultra loyal FF + loyal FF-FF + loyal FF-MP + loyal FF-Undecided + FF(undeicded) |
MP | 470483 | 586825 | 626557 | Ultra loyal MP + loyal MP-MP + loyal MP-FF + loyal MP-Undecided + MP(undecided) |
third party | 253545 | 299569 | 316545 | Undecided(undecided) + Unclassfied |
FF (%) | 51.7% | 51.1% | 51.0% | |
MP (%) | 31.4% | 32.4% | 32.6% | |
third party (%) | 16.9% | 16.5% | 16.5% |
MODEL 3 | August | September | October | Note |
---|---|---|---|---|
FF (%) | 50.2% | 50.2% | 50.1% | rescaling the results from MODEL 2 |
MP (%) | 36.9% | 38.0% | 38.3% | |
third party (%) | 12.9% | 11.8% | 11.6% | |
MODEL 4 | August | September | October | Note |
---|---|---|---|---|
FF | 848517 | 1012246 | 1064338 | Ultra loyal FF + loyal FF-FF + loyal FF-MP + loyal FF-Undecided + FF(undeicded) + FF(unclassified) |
MP | 492376 | 616280 | 660210 | Ultra loyal MP + loyal MP-MP + loyal MP-FF + loyal MP-Undecided + MP(undecided) + MP(unclassified) |
third party | 159434 | 183340 | 199628 | Undecided(undecided) + Unclassfied(unclassified) |
FF (%) | 56.6% | 55.9% | 55.3% | |
MP (%) | 32.8% | 34.0% | 34.3% | |
third party (%) | 10.6% | 10.1% | 10.4% |
MODEL 5 | August | September | October | Note |
---|---|---|---|---|
FF (%) | 53.2% | 52.9% | 52.5% | rescaling the results from MODEL 4 |
MP (%) | 38.0% | 39.1% | 39.4% | |
third party (%) | 8.8% | 8.1% | 8.0% |